Disinformation, deepfakes and threats have gone into overdrive in the final days of the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign, and Cyble threat researchers have detected a number of new campaigns attempting to sway the outcome.
Cyble’s findings confirm a warning issued yesterday by CISA, the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) that disinformation efforts are growing in the campaign’s final days, with Russia the biggest threat, followed by Iran.
Russia in particular is focused on spreading claims of election fraud to stoke division in the coming days, despite repeated assurances by government security officials and independent observers that it would be nearly impossible for malicious actors, even insiders, to alter election results due to the isolation of voting machines from the internet and paper backups in all but Louisiana and parts of Texas. Russian efforts to disrupt election day voting included bomb threats targeting polling places and a text campaign aiming to divide Democratic voters over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
The warning from U.S. intelligence agencies was followed a short while later by a CNN article that said a U.S. social media influencer had admitted he was paid $100 by a pro-Kremlin propagandist to post a fake video of Haitian immigrants claiming to vote in the U.S. presidential election, one of several the man said he received from a registered Russian agent.
Telegram Chatter: Election Fraud Claims, Influence Campaigns
Here is some of the election chatter Cyble researchers have noted in recent days on the company’s dark web monitoring services. Claims of election fraud continue, but recent efforts have expanded to amplify any perceived irregularity and finding new ways to suppress turnout. The tone of some communications have turned more militant in recent days, while stopping short of calling for violence.
One new campaign is focused on amplifying a recent appearance by Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) on Joe Rogan’s podcast. One Telegram post claimed that “Democratic Senator John Fetterman agrees with Joe Rogan’s claim that Democrats are manipulating elections by allowing millions of illegal immigrants into the U.S. and strategically positioning them in swing states.”
That claim is false. Fetterman – who represents the critical swing state of Pennsylvania – wasn’t at his most articulate on Rogan’s show, but even the right-leaning Real Clear Politics reports Fetterman saying, “if I thought there was any kinds of issues and I’ve been very vigilant throughout, I’ve been actively involved in those kinds of things and I’ve never witnessed those kinds of a thing” in an article that seems aimed at muddying the issue. But given the importance of Pennsylvania in the 2024 election, it’s not surprising that the interview was widely distorted in disinformation efforts.
Alleged pro-Palestinian Telegram accounts have been urging voters to reject both the Republican and Democratic parties and vote third party. As Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is likely to be more sympathetic to Palestinian interests in the war with Israel than Republican nominee Donald Trump, this widespread campaign is likely to be a disinformation operation. Here’s one Telegram post from the ongoing campaign:
“The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine calls on all the free people of America, especially supporters of the Palestinian people, Palestinian and Arab communities, as well as Black organizations and other minorities, to boycott the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. elections scheduled for tomorrow, as both share clear colonial objectives aimed at the genocide of our people and the reinforcement of the zionist settler project.”
In addition to widespread claims that the election will be rigged or stolen – coming almost exclusively from right-leaning accounts – some dark web chatter has warned of violence while stopping short of calling for violence. Two examples from Telegram:
“We did not come to this place and point in history because of people like me. We were dragged here by a system built upon division and perpetual angst. We are now in a cocked gun presidential election that will go off no matter how the race is called. People are going to kill each other. People are going to burn things. We cannot stop any of that, but we also cannot avoid the disruptive impacts of it either. As soon as America falls into revolt, every one of our enemies is going to attack us at the same time.”
“This time it’s different. We don’t have to tolerate their BS. Not that violence is the answer. But like you said. Refuse be bullied. If enough folks thumb their noses at them and calmly state ‘Nope. And you can’t make us, either. So piss off.’ Violence won’t be needed.”
Given the insurrection that followed the 2020 election, any divisive rhetoric on the part of the losing candidate in the 2024 election may gain traction with groups that are already on high alert.
Applying a Reality Check to Election Information
In looking at any information about the election, readers are urged to apply two tests: Does the information make sense, and who stands to benefit from its dissemination?
In the Fetterman and Palestinian examples above, the statements allegedly attributed to them wouldn’t benefit them, but they would benefit the Trump campaign and its Russian supporters. For those and other reasons, Cyble has concluded that those posts are likely aimed at spreading disinformation, intentionally or otherwise.
Cyble researchers found that election chatter on the dark web has more than doubled in the final two months of the election campaign, and has been displaying increasing signs of both sophistication and militance as the election nears, mirroring concerns expressed privately by U.S. intelligence officials.
